Mainstreet Economy
Rural Mainstreet Economy Falls Again
Bankers Support the President's Tariff Program
April 2025 Survey Results at-a-Glance:
• The overall Rural Mainstreet index fell below growth neutral 50.0 for the 19th time in the past 20 months.
• For the 11th time in the past 12 months, farmland prices sank below growth neutral.
• Farm equipment sales dropped below growth neutral for the 20th straight month.
• Three of four bankers support the President’s recent substantial increase in tariffs on imports from China. Only one in four support a return to January 1, 2025, tariffs levels.
• Approximately 20.8% of bank CEOs recommend that the federal government fully offset farmer losses from tariff impositions, while 21.1% argue for no increase in federal support. • According to trade data from the International Trade Association (ITA), regional exports of agriculture goods and livestock for the first two months of 2025, compared to the same 2024 period, fell from $2.4 billion in 2024 to $1.8 billion in 2025, for a decline of 23.8%.
• Mexico began 2025 as the top destination for ag exports, accounting for 48.1% of total regional agriculture and livestock exports.
Creighton University Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI)
OMAHA, Neb. (April. 17, 2025) — For the 19th time in the past 20 months, the overall Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) sank below the 50.0 growth reading in April, according to the monthly survey of bank CEOs in rural areas of a 10-state region dependent on agriculture and/or energy.
Overall: The region’s overall reading for April fell to 40.0 from March’s 41.1. The index ranges between 0 and 100, with a reading of 50.0 representing growth neutral.
“The economic outlook for 2025 farm income remains weak, according to bank CEOs. Despite the negative fallout from tariffs, 75% of bankers support the tariffs on China, and 79.2% back the 90-day pause on other tariffs,” said Ernie Goss, PhD, Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University’s Heider College of Business.
Three of four bankers back the President’s recent substantial increase in tariffs on imports from China. Only one in four support a return to January 1, 2025, tariffs on imports from China.
Approximately 20.8% of bank CEOs recommend that the federal government fully offset farmer losses from tariff impositions, while 21.1% argue for no increase in federal support.
Other comments from bankers in April:
• Jeffrey Gerhart, former Chairman of the Bank of Newman Grove in Newman Grove, Neb. said, “We are in unknown territory with the administration. Our trade relations with Canada and Mexico were put together over many years for the benefit of the three countries. That has now been torn apart.”
• Jim Eckert, Executive Vice President and Trust Officer of Anchor State Bank in Anchor, Ill. reported that, “Farmers in our area are ready to plant, but much-needed rain has held them up. Most are not too concerned so far, as it is early in the season.”
Farming and ranching land prices: For the 11th time in the past 12 months, farmland prices slumped below growth neutral. The region’s farmland price index increased to 41.7 from 38.9 in March. “Elevated interest rates, higher input costs and volatility from tariffs have put downward pressure on ag land prices,” said Goss.
According to trade data from the International Trade Association (ITA), regional exports of agriculture goods and livestock for the first two months of 2025, compared to the same 2024 period, fell from $2.4 billion in 2024 to $1.8 billion in 2025, for a decline of 23.8%. Mexico began 2025 as the top destination for ag exports, accounting for 48.1% of total regional agriculture and livestock exports.
Only 12.5% of bankers support returning to January 2025 tariff levels on U.S. trading partners.
Farm equipment sales: The farm equipment sales index dropped to a very weak 17.4 from 20.8 in March. “This is the 20th straight month that the index has fallen below growth neutral. High input prices, tighter credit conditions and market volatility from tariffs are having a negative impact on the purchases of farm equipment,” said Goss.
Banking: The April loan volume index declined to 70.8 from March’s 77.8. The checking deposit index improved to 58.7 from 50.0 in March. The index for certificates of deposits (CDs) and other savings instruments rose to 58.3 from 55.6 in March. Federal Reserve interest rate policies have boosted CD purchases above growth neutral for 29 straight months.
Hiring: The new hiring index for April plummeted to 43.8 from March’s 53.7. Recent job gains for non-farm employers weakened for the month.
Confidence: Rural bankers remain pessimistic about economic growth for their area over the next six months. The April confidence index increased to a weak 36.0 from March’s 30.4. “Weak grain prices and negative farm cash flows, combined with downturns in farm equipment sales over the past several months, pushed banker confidence lower,” said Goss.
Home and retail sales: Home sales remained soft with an April reading of 45.8, up from 42.6 in March. Regional retail sales remained extremely weak with an index of 39.6, down slightly from 40.4 in March.
The survey represents an early snapshot of the economy of rural agriculturally- and energy-dependent portions of the nation. The Rural Mainstreet Index is a unique index that covers 10 regional states, focusing on approximately 200 rural communities with an average population of 1,300. The index provides the most current real-time analysis of the rural economy. Goss and the late Bill McQuillan, former Chairman of the Independent Community Banks of America, created the monthly economic survey and launched it in January 2006.
Below are the state reports
Colorado
The state’s Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) for April increased to 45.0 from 43.6 in March. The farmland and ranchland price index for April climbed to a weak 42.7 from 39.5 in March. The state’s new hiring index fell to 44.8 from March’s 52.9. According to trade data from the ITA, Colorado exports of agriculture goods and livestock for the first two months of 2025, compared to the same period in 2024, rose by $39.2 million, for a 76.5% gain. South Africa was the top destination to begin 2025, accounting for 42.1% of 2025 Colorado agriculture and livestock exports.
Illinois
The state’s April RMI increased to 34.6 from March’s 30.4. The farmland price index for April climbed to 39.8 from 35.8 in March. The state’s new hiring index sank to 41.2 from 48.3 in March. According to trade data from the ITA, Illinois exports of agriculture goods and livestock for the first two months of 2025, compared to the same period in 2024, sank by $442.9 million, for a decline of 45.8%. China was the top destination to begin 2025, accounting for 22.4% of 2025 Illinois agriculture and livestock exports.
Iowa
April’s RMI for the state improved to a weak 39.8 from 39.2 in March. Iowa’s farmland price index for April increased to 36.8 from 33.6 in March. Iowa’s new hiring index for April slumped to 37.5 from March’s 55.7. According to trade data from the ITA, Iowa exports of agriculture goods and livestock for the first two months of 2025, compared to the same period in 2024, sank by $69.5 million, for a decline of 19.7%. Mexico was the top destination to begin 2025, accounting for 70.0% of 2025 Iowa agriculture and livestock exports.
Kansas
The Kansas RMI for April increased slightly to 37.5 from March’s 36.5. The state’s farmland price index increased slightly to 33.5 from 32.6 in March. The new hiring index for Kansas fell to 33.5 from 44.5 in March. According to trade data from the ITA, Kansas exports of agriculture goods and livestock for the first two months of 2025, compared to the same period in 2024, sank by $45.6 million, for a decline of 18.5%. Mexico was the top destination to begin 2025, accounting for 76.2% of 2025 Kansas agriculture and livestock exports.
Minnesota
The April RMI for Minnesota increased to 46.7 from 46.2 in March. Minnesota’s farmland price index increased to 42.8 from 40.3 in March. The new hiring index for April plummeted to 42.8 from March’s 53.9. According to trade data from ITA, Minnesota exports of agriculture goods and livestock for the first two months of 2025, compared to the same period in 2024, sank by $23.3 million for a decline of 23.3%. Mexico was the top destination to begin 2025, accounting for 14,5% of 2025 Minnesota agriculture and livestock exports.
Missouri
The state’s April RMI slumped to 46.7 from 56.2 in March. The farmland price index for April dropped to 35.7 from March’s 39.3. The state’s new hiring gauge for April fell to 35.7 from March’s 44.9. According to trade data from the ITA, Missouri exports of agriculture goods and livestock for the first two months of 2025, compared to the same period in 2024, sank by $41.3 million, for a decline of 19.7%. Mexico was the top destination to begin 2025, accounting for 86.2% of 2025 Missouri agriculture and livestock exports.
Nebraska
The Nebraska Rural Mainstreet Index for April increased to 32.8 from 32.6 in March. The state’s farmland price index for April rose to 39.3 from March’s 36.4. Nebraska’s new hiring index fell to 40.6 from 49.1 in March. According to trade data from the ITA, Nebraska exports of agriculture goods and livestock for the first two months of 2025, compared to the same period in 2024, expanded by $14.2 million, for a gain of 6.5%. Mexico was the top destination to begin 2025, accounting for 48.0% of 2025 Nebraska agriculture and livestock exports.
North Dakota
The state’s RMI for April dropped to 39.1 from 40.3 in March. The state’s farmland price index rose to 41.0 from March’s 38.6. The state’s new hiring index sank to 41.0 from 51.8 in March. According to trade data from the ITA, North Dakota exports of agriculture goods and livestock for the first two months of 2025, compared to the same period in 2024, sank by $20.2 million, for a decline of 12.0%. Mexico was the top destination to begin 2025, accounting for 44.1% of 2025 North Dakota agriculture and livestock exports.
South Dakota
The April RMI for South Dakota slumped to 37.9 from 42.3 in March. The state’s farmland price index climbed to 40.7 from 37.5 in March. South Dakota’s April new hiring index dropped to 42.3 from March’s 50.5. According to trade data from the ITA, South Dakota exports of agriculture goods and livestock for the first two months of 2025, compared to the same period in 2024, expanded by $28.0 million, for a gain of 203.6%. Mexico was the top destination to begin 2025, accounting for 88.5% of 2025 South Dakota agriculture and livestock exports.
Wyoming
The April RMI for Wyoming sank to 42.1 from 46.6 in March. The April farmland and ranchland price index increased to 41.9 from March’s 40.4. Wyoming’s new hiring index dropped to 43.8 from 54.0 in March. According to trade data from the ITA, Wyoming exports of agriculture goods and livestock for the first two months of 2025, compared to the same period in 2024, expanded by $0.65 million for a gain of 179.8% gain. Mexico was the top destination to begin 2025, accounting for 39.1% of 2025 Wyoming agriculture and livestock exports.
Tables 1 and 2 summarize the survey findings. Next month’s survey results will be released on the third Thursday of the month, May 18, 2025.
