Economic Outlook
Recent Survey Results
November’s Mid-America Manufacturing Index
Negative Again with Job Losses and Mild Inflation
November 2024 Survey Highlights:
• For the sixth time this year, the overall or Business Conditions Index fell below growth neutral.
• For a second straight month, the wholesale price inflation gauge rose.
• As a result of a potential Jan. 15 longshoremen strike, 38.7% of supply managers named supply chain disruptions as the top challenge for their firm over the next year.
• The region’s employment index slumped below growth neutral for an 11th straight month.
• Supply managers remained pessimistic regarding the economic outlook, with approximately 41% expecting a recession or a sharp downturn in economic activity in the next six months.
• According to the latest U.S. International Trade Administration data, the regional manufacturing sector expanded 2024 year-to-date exports by $1.9 billion from the same period in 2023 for a 2.6% gain.
• Despite slowing growth and cooling inflationary pressures, Goss expects the Federal Reserve to leave interest rates unchanged at their next meetings on Dec. 17-18.
Rural Mainstreet Economy Soars to Highest Level in 15 Months
Farmland Prices Expected to Fall 2.7% Over Next 12 Months
November 2024 Survey Results at a Glance:
• The Rural Mainstreet Index climbed to its highest level in 15 months.
• For the sixth time in the past seven months, farmland prices sank.
• On average, bank CEOs expect farmland prices to decline 2.7% over the next 12 months.
• Farm equipment sales dropped for the 16th straight month.
• Approximately 64.3% of bankers recommended that the Federal Reserve make no change to short-term interest rates at its December meeting. The remaining 35.7% advocated a 0.25% reduction.
• According to trade data from the International Trade Association, regional exports of agriculture goods and livestock for 2024 year-to-date climbed to $8.73 billion from $8.64 billion from the same period in 2023, for growth of 1.1%.
