Economic Outlook
Recent Survey Results
October’s Mid-America Manufacturing Index Turns Positive
Even as Job Losses Continue
October 2024 Survey Highlights:
• For the fifth time this year, the overall, or Business Conditions Index, rose above growth neutral.
• Almost four of 10 supply managers named supply chain disruptions as the top challenge to their firm over the next year.
• The region’s employment index slumped below growth neutral for a 10th straight month.
• Supply managers remained pessimistic regarding the economic outlook, with approximately 41% expecting a recession, or a sharp downturn in economic activity in the next six months.
•As a result of a cooling 2024 economy and waning inflationary pressures, Goss expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 0.25% at its November 6-7, 2024, meetings.
Rural Mainstreet Economy Falls to Four-Year Low
October 2024 Survey Results at a Glance:
• The Rural Mainstreet Index plummeted to its lowest level since the beginning of the pandemic and fell below growth neutral for the 14th straight month.
• Approximately, 85.2% of bankers indicated that former President Donald Trump would be the most supportive of the rural economy with 3.7% indicating Vice-President Kamala Harris and the remaining 11.1% naming another candidate.
• For the fifth time in the past six months, farmland prices sank.
• Farm equipment sales sank for the 15th straight month.
• Approximately, 61.5% of bankers indicated that the financial position of farmers in their service area had deteriorated over the past six months.
• According to trade data from the International Trade Association, regional exports of agriculture goods and livestock for 2024 year-to-date climbed to $7.8 billion from $7.7 billion from the same period in 2023, for growth of 1.2%.
