Mainstreet Economy
Rural Mainstreet Economy Soars to Two-Year High
One in Four Farmers Expected to Experience Negative 2025 Income
June 2025 Survey Results at-a-Glance:
• The overall Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) rose to its highest level since July 2023.
• Bank CEOs expect one in four farmers in their area to experience negative 2025 income.
• Bankers reported very low farm loan delinquency rates over the past six months.
• For the 13th time in the past 14 months, farmland prices sank below growth neutral.
• Farm equipment sales dropped below growth neutral for the 22nd straight month.
• Regional exports of agriculture goods and livestock for the first four months of 2025, compared to the same 2024 period, fell from $4.5 billion in 2024 to $3.7 billion in 2025 for a decline of 18.5%.
• Mexico was the top destination for regional ag exports, accounting for 55.1% of total regional agriculture and livestock exports.
Creighton University Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI)
OMAHA, Neb. (June. 20, 2025) — For the 20th time in the past 21 months, the overall Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) sank below the 50.0 growth neutral reading in May, according to the monthly survey of bank CEOs in rural areas of a 10-state region dependent on agriculture and/or energy.
Overall: The region’s overall reading for June rose to 51.9 from May’s 44.0. The index ranges between 0 and 100, with a reading of 50.0 representing growth neutral.
“This is only the third time in two years that the overall index has moved above growth neutral. Despite the significant increase for the month, on average, bankers expect approximately one in four farmers to experience negative income for farmers in their area,” said Ernie Goss, PhD, Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University’s Heider College of Business.
Regarding the Federal Reserve’s short-term interest rate decision this week, three out of four bank CEOs agreed with the Fed’s decision to maintain the current rate. Approximately 22.2% recommended a 0.25% (25 basis points) rate cut, while the remaining 3.7% argued for a 0.25% rate increase.
According to Casey Regan, CEO of Premier Banks in Maplewood, Minn., “Flyover country is being ignored despite relatively solid growth prospects. Customers remain cautiously positive and willing to invest.”
Other comments from bankers in June:
• Jim Eckert, Executive VP and Trust Officer of Anchor State Bank in Anchor, Ill. said,
“We have had adequate rain in our area of Central Illinois. The corn crop looks very good, but soybeans are behind. Farmers continue to be concerned about low commodity prices and higher input costs.”
• Jeff Bonnett, President of Havana Bank in Havana, Ill. reported that, “Thanks to irrigation on the east side of the Illinois River, some of our farm producers will be able to grow specialty crops (green beans, melons, popcorn and potatoes), which will allow them to be profitable for 2025.”
•Casey Regan, CEO of Premier Banks in Maplewood, Minn. added, “Economic trends in Minnesota are positive despite the negative economic headlines referenced on the coasts.
Farming and ranching land prices: For the 13th time in the past 14 months, farmland prices slumped below growth neutral. The region’s farmland price increased slightly to a weak 40.9 from 39.6 in May. “Elevated interest rates, higher input costs and volatility from tariffs have put downward pressure on farmland prices. On average, bankers expect one in four farmers in their area to experience negative 2025 income,” said Goss.
According to trade data from the International Trade Association (ITA), regional exports of agriculture goods and livestock for the first four months of 2025, compared to the same 2024 period, fell from $4.5 billion in 2024 to $3.7 billion in 2025 for a decline of 18.5%. For the first month of 2025, Mexico was the top destination for regional ag exports, accounting for 55.1% of total regional agriculture and livestock exports.
Farm equipment sales: The farm equipment sales index slumped to a very weak 22.7 from 23.9 in May. “This is the 22nd straight month that the index has fallen below growth neutral. High input prices, tighter credit conditions, low farm commodity prices and market volatility from tariffs are having a negative impact on the purchases of farm equipment,” said Goss.
Banking: The June loan volume index declined to 73.1 from 75.0 in May. The checking deposit index fell to 40.4 from May’s 45.8. The index for certificates of deposits (CDs) and other savings instruments dropped to 50.2 from 60.4 in May. Federal Reserve interest rate policies have boosted CD purchases above growth neutral for 31 straight months.
Hiring: The new hiring index for June slipped to 52.0 from May’s 52.1. Job gains for non-farm employers have been positive but soft for the last several months.
Confidence: Rural bankers remain pessimistic about economic growth for their area over the next six months. The June confidence index increased to a frail 37.0 from May’s 30.0. “Weak grain prices and negative farm cash flows, combined with tariff retaliation concerns, pushed banker confidence lower,” said Goss.
On average, bankers project that 24.7% of farmers will experience negative income for 2025. “Despite weak farm income for 2023, 2024 and now 2025, bankers reported that farm loan delinquency rates have risen by only 1.1% over the past six months,” said Goss.
Home and retail sales: Home sales strengthened slightly to 51.9 from May’s 47.9. Regional retail sales, much like national retail sales for June, were weak with a reading of 44.2, which was up from 41.7 in May.
The survey represents an early snapshot of the economy of rural agriculturally- and energy-dependent portions of the nation. The Rural Mainstreet Index is a unique index that covers 10 regional states, focusing on approximately 200 rural communities with an average population of 1,300. The index provides the most current real-time analysis of the rural economy. Goss and the late Bill McQuillan, former Chairman of the Independent Community Banks of America, created the monthly economic survey and launched it in January 2006.
Below are the state reports
Colorado
The state’s Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) for June improved to 50.9 from 47.9 in May. The farmland and ranchland price index for June increased to 42.0 from May’s 40.8. The state’s new hiring index dipped to 52.2 from May’s 52.3. According to trade data from the International Trade Association (ITA), Colorado exports of agriculture goods and livestock for the first four months of 2025, compared to the same period in 2024, rose by $13.8 million for a 10.9% gain. South Africa was the top destination to begin 2025, accounting for 27.2% of 2025 Colorado agriculture and livestock exports.
Illinois
The state’s June Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) advanced to 52.7 from 37.6 in May. The farmland price index for June increased to 42.3 from 37.9 in May. The state’s new hiring index for June climbed to 53.8 from 48.6. According to trade data from ITA, Illinois exports of agriculture goods and livestock for the first four months of 2025, compared to the same period in 2024, sank by $753.0 million for a decline of 43.1%. China was the top destination for state exports, accounting for 27.9% of 2025 Illinois agriculture and livestock exports.
Iowa
June’s RMI for the state climbed to 51.0 from 46.8 in May. Iowa’s farmland price index for June dropped to 39.3 from 41.6 in May. Iowa’s new hiring index for June dipped to 44.8 from May’s 44.9. According to trade data from ITA, Iowa exports of agriculture goods and livestock for the first four months of 2025, compared to the same period in 2024, sank by $11.9 million for a decline of 1.8%. Mexico was the top destination for state exports, accounting for 74.5% of 2025 Iowa agriculture and livestock exports.
Kansas
The Kansas RMI for June climbed to 49.1 from May’s 36.8. The state’s farmland price index moved to 36.1 from 31.6 in May. The new hiring index for Kansas rose to 46.0 from 40.9 in May. According to trade data from ITA, Kansas exports of agriculture goods and livestock for the first four months of 2025, compared to the same period in 2024, sank by $24.2 million for a decline of 4.8%. Mexico was the top destination for state exports, accounting for 77.0% of 2025 Kansas agriculture and livestock exports.
Minnesota
The June RMI for Minnesota climbed to 54.5 from 48.2 in May. Minnesota’s farmland price index increased to 45.2 from 40.9 in May. The new hiring index for June rose to 57.5 from 52.4 in May. According to trade data from ITA, Minnesota exports of agriculture goods and livestock for the first four months of 2025, compared to the same period in 2024, sank by $90.1 million for a decline of 24.0%. Mexico was the top destination for state exports, accounting for 35.1% of 2025 Minnesota agriculture and livestock exports.
Missouri
The RMI for state’s June advanced to 50.3 from 40.1 in May. The farmland price index for June increased to 38.2 from May’s 33.8. The state’s new hiring gauge for June moved to 48.7 from May’s 43.6. According to trade data from ITA, Missouri exports of agriculture goods and livestock for the first four months of 2025, compared to the same period in 2024, fell by $59.3 million for a decline of 16.9%. Mexico was the top destination for state exports, accounting for 86.2% of 2025 Missouri agriculture and livestock exports.
Nebraska
The Nebraska Rural Mainstreet Index for June jumped to 52.4 from 35.8 in May. The state’s farmland price index for June increased to 41.8 from May’s 37.3. Nebraska’s new hiring index climbed to 53.1 from May’s 48.0. According to trade data from the International Trade Association (ITA), Nebraska exports of agriculture goods and livestock for the first four months of 2025, compared to the same period in 2024, rose by $63.1 million for a 16.6% gain. Mexico was the top destination to begin 2025, accounting for 66.8% of 2025 Nebraska agriculture and livestock exports.
North Dakota
The state’s overall RMI for June improved to 53.5 from May’s 42.0. The state’s farmland price index increased to 43.6 from May’s 39.1. The state’s new hiring index rose to 55.3 from 50.2 in May. According to trade data from ITA, North Dakota exports of agriculture goods and livestock for the first four months of 2025, compared to the same period in 2024, fell by $18.9 million for a decline of 6.0%. Mexico was the top destination for state exports, accounting for 48.6% of 2025 North Dakota agriculture and livestock exports.
South Dakota
The June RMI for South Dakota climbed to 52.3 from 40.8 in May. The state’s farmland price index increased to 43.2 from 38.8 in May. South Dakota’s June new hiring index rose to 54.9 from May’s 49.8. According to trade data from the International Trade Association (ITA), South Dakota exports of agriculture goods and livestock for the first four months of 2025, compared to the same period in 2024, rose by $18.4 million for a 40.4% gain. Mexico was the top destination to begin 2025, accounting for 79.8% of 2025 South Dakota agriculture and livestock exports.
Wyoming
The June overall RMI for Wyoming jumped to 54.0 from 45.0 in May. The June farmland and ranchland price index increased to 44.4 from May’s 40.0. Wyoming’s new hiring index rose to 56.4 from 51.3 in May. According to trade data from the International Trade Association (ITA), Wyoming exports of agriculture goods and livestock for the first four months of 2025, compared to the same period in 2024, rose by $2.7 million for a 273.5% gain. Canada was the top destination to begin 2025, accounting for 61.0% of 2025 Wyoming agriculture and livestock exports.
Tables 1 and 2 summarize the survey findings. Next month’s survey results will be released on the third Thursday of the month, July 17, 2025.
