Economic Outlook
Recent Survey Results
Mid-America Manufacturing Growth Slows with Higher Prices
Tariffs Pushing Input Prices Higher
May 2025 Survey Highlights:
• The overall Mid-America Business Conditions Index declined for the month but remained above growth neutral for the fifth straight month.
• Approximately one-third of manufacturers reported switching input providers due to tariffs, or the threat of tariffs.
• The May regional manufacturing employment index remained below growth neutral.
• More than half of supply managers reported that tariffs and impending tariffs have pushed prices higher for production inputs.
• As indicated by a supply manager in the May survey, “Tariffs are being used as a means to increase prices regardless of whether they are applicable or not.”
• As a result of slowing growth, Goss expects a cut in short-term interest rates at the Federal Reserve’s next meetings on June 17/18.
• According to U.S. International Trade Administration (ITA) data, the regional economy exported $23.4 billion in manufactured goods for the first quarter of 2025, compared to $23.7 billion for the same period in 2024, for a 1.4% decline.
Rural Mainstreet Economy Soars to Two-Year High
One in Four Farmers Expected to Experience Negative 2025 Income
June 2025 Survey Results at-a-Glance:
• The overall Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) rose to its highest level since July 2023.
• Bank CEOs expect one in four farmers in their area to experience negative 2025 income.
• Bankers reported very low farm loan delinquency rates over the past six months.
• For the 13th time in the past 14 months, farmland prices sank below growth neutral.
• Farm equipment sales dropped below growth neutral for the 22nd straight month.
• Regional exports of agriculture goods and livestock for the first four months of 2025, compared to the same 2024 period, fell from $4.5 billion in 2024 to $3.7 billion in 2025 for a decline of 18.5%.
• Mexico was the top destination for regional ag exports, accounting for 55.1% of total regional agriculture and livestock exports.
