Economic Outlook
Recent Survey Results
Mid-America Manufacturing Indicates Little to No Growth
Tariffs Are Impacting Imports and Exports
August 2025 Survey Highlights:
• The overall Mid-America Business Conditions Index continued to hover around growth neutral for the month.
• Employment losses occurred for the fifth straight month.
• Approximately 15% of firms reported that hiring had risen from July, compared to 10% of businesses that indicated that their firm had begun layoffs.
• The regional inflation yardstick moved into a range indicating that inflationary pressures are moving higher at the wholesale level.
• As reported by one supply manager, “We are starting to see the impact of tariffs on our bottom line.”
• Approximately four of five firms reported that tariffs were pushing import prices higher.
• According to U.S. International Trade Administration (ITA) data, the regional economy exported $46.5 billion in manufactured goods for the first half of 2025, compared to $49.3 billion for the same period in 2024, for a 5.7% decline.
Rural Mainstreet Economy Falls into Negative Territory
One-Fifth of Grain Farmers to Experience Negative Cash Flow
August 2025 Survey Results at-a-Glance:
• For the sixth time in 2025, the overall regional economic index sank below growth neutral.
• For the 15th time in the past 16 months, farmland prices sank below growth neutral.
• Approximately six of ten bank CEOs support a Federal Reserve rate cut at their September meeting. Only 3.7% support a rate cut of more than 25 basis points (¼%).
• On average, bank CEOs expect one in five grain farmers to experience negative cash flow for 2025.
• Farm equipment sales dropped below growth neutral for the 24th straight month.
• According to trade data from the International Trade Association (ITA), regional exports of agriculture goods and livestock for the first half of 2025, compared to the same 2024 period, fell from $6.2 billion in 2024 to $5.4 billion in 2025 for a decline of 12.7%.
• For the first half of 2025, Mexico was the top destination for regional agriculture exports, accounting for 57.1% of total regional agriculture and livestock exports.
