Economic Outlook
Recent Survey Results
Slow Growth for Mid-America Manufacturing
Higher Inflation with Job Losses
June 2025 Survey Highlights:
• The overall Mid-America Business Conditions Index declined for the month but remained above growth neutral for the sixth straight month.
• The June regional manufacturing employment index remained below growth neutral.
• Inflation continues to trend higher.
• On average, supply managers expect tariffs to push input prices up by 7.5% in the second half of 2025.
• A high proportion of supply managers reported a balance between job openings and job applicants.
• According to U.S. International Trade Administration (ITA) data, the regional economy exported $32.1 billion in manufactured goods for the first four months of 2025, compared to $31.3 billion for the same period in 2024, for a 2.3% decline.
• In terms of export gainers for the first four months of 2025, North Dakota registered the top gain with a 29.7% addition, and South Dakota recorded the largest loss with a 20.4% reduction in exports of manufactured goods.
Rural Mainstreet Economy Soars to Two-Year High
One in Four Farmers Expected to Experience Negative 2025 Income
June 2025 Survey Results at-a-Glance:
• The overall Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) rose to its highest level since July 2023.
• Bank CEOs expect one in four farmers in their area to experience negative 2025 income.
• Bankers reported very low farm loan delinquency rates over the past six months.
• For the 13th time in the past 14 months, farmland prices sank below growth neutral.
• Farm equipment sales dropped below growth neutral for the 22nd straight month.
• Regional exports of agriculture goods and livestock for the first four months of 2025, compared to the same 2024 period, fell from $4.5 billion in 2024 to $3.7 billion in 2025 for a decline of 18.5%.
• Mexico was the top destination for regional ag exports, accounting for 55.1% of total regional agriculture and livestock exports.
