Economic Outlook
Recent Survey Results
Mid-America Manufacturing Economy Expands to 20-month High
Jobs Soar with Higher Wholesale Inflation
March 2025 Survey Highlights:
• The overall Mid-America Business Conditions Index climbed to its highest level since July 2022.
• The March Business Confidence Index plummeted to its lowest level since September 2024 with supply managers voicing concerns over tariffs.
• As indicated by a participating supply manager, “Our downstream customers tell us that consumers have reduced the purchasing of big ticket items due to the turmoil at the federal level.”
• Another supply manager said they are, “Taking steps to mitigate tariff impact. Already implemented a surcharge to account for the 25% tariff on incoming steel.”
• For a sixth straight month, the wholesale price inflation gauge increased, indicating expanding inflationary pressures. Even so, Goss expects the Federal Reserve to hold off on any interest rate change at its next meetings on May 6-7.
• The March employment index soared to its highest level since July 2022.
• According to U.S. International Trade Administration (ITA) data, the regional economy began the year with manufacturing exports at $7.1 billion, essentially flat from the same period in 2024.
Rural Mainstreet Economy: Solid Job Growth, Weak Farm Income
Almost Two-Thirds of Bankers Expect 2025 Farm Income to Decline
March 2025 Survey Results at-a-Glance:
• The overall Rural Mainstreet index fell below growth neutral for the 18th time in the past 19 months.
• For the 10th time in the past 11 months, farmland prices sank.
• In terms of 2025 farm income, compared to 2024 farm income, only 3.7% of bankers expect an increase, while 62.9% predict a decline.
• Farm equipment sales dropped for the 19th straight month.
• Only 7.5% of bank CEOs recommend returning to January 2025 tariff levels.
• Approximately one in five bank CEOs expect a recession in 2025.
• According to trade data from the International Trade Association (ITA), regional exports of agriculture goods and livestock for the first month of 2025, compared to the first month of 2024, fell from $1.1 billion in 2024 to $964.3 million in 2025 for a decline of 13.9%.
• Mexico began 2025 as the top destination for ag exports, accounting for 44.8% of total regional agriculture and livestock exports.
• Despite weakness on the farm, solid job gains were recorded for the non-farm Rural Mainstreet Economy.
