Economic Outlook
Recent Survey Results
Mid-America Manufacturing Expands with Higher Prices
Region Loses Jobs for the Month
April 2025 Survey Highlights:
• The overall Mid-America Business Conditions Index declined for the month but remained above growth neutral for the fourth straight month.
• The April employment index tumbled to 44.9, its lowest level since November 2024.
• The wholesale price index climbed for the seventh straight month to its highest reading since May 2024.
• Approximately 65% of supply managers reported that rising tariffs and supply chain interruptions have resulted in higher input prices.
• As indicated by a supply manager in the April survey, “The uncertainty (surrounding tariffs) is paralyzing.”
• As a result of slowing growth and upward inflationary pressures, Goss expects no change in short-term interest rates at the Federal Reserve’s next meeting on May 6-7.
• According to U.S. International Trade Administration (ITA) data, the regional economy exported $14.7 billion in manufactured goods for the first two months of 2025, compared to $15.3 billion for the same period in 2024, for a 4.2% decline.
Rural Mainstreet Economy Remains Weak
95% of Bankers Support Continuing 2017 Tax Cuts
May 2025 Survey Results at-a-Glance:
• The overall Rural Mainstreet index fell below growth neutral 50.0 for the 20th time in the past 21 months.
• For the 12th time in the past 13 months, farmland prices sank below growth neutral.
• Farm equipment sales dropped below growth neutral for the 21st straight month.
• Federal Reserve interest rate policies have boosted CD purchases above growth neutral for 30 straight months.
• Approximately 68% named lower ag commodity prices as the number one farming threat, while 23.5% indicated higher tariffs as the top risk factor.
• According to trade data from the International Trade Association (ITA), regional exports of agriculture goods and livestock for the first quarter of 2025, compared to the same 2024 period, fell from $3.4 billion in 2024 to $2.7 billion in 2025 for a decline of 19.3%.
• For Q1, 2025, Mexico was the top destination for regional ag exports, accounting for 50.6% of total regional agriculture and livestock exports.
