Economic Outlook
Recent Survey Results
Mid-America Manufacturing Economy Continues Expansion
Tariffs Expected to Boost Prices by 9.6%
February 2025 Survey Highlights:
• For only the fourth time since July 2024, the overall, or Business Conditions Index, climbed above growth neutral.
• For a fifth straight month, the wholesale price inflation gauge increased, indicating expanding inflationary pressures. Even so, Goss expects the Federal Reserve to hold off on any interest rate change at its next meeting on March 18-19.
• On average, supply managers expect tariffs, if implemented, to increase input prices by 9.6%.
• Fears of rising tariffs pushed imports to a record-high level.
• According to 2024 U.S. International Trade Administration data, the regional economy expanded 2024 manufacturing exports by $1.0 billion from 2023 for a 1.1% gain.
• In terms of 2023 to 2024 export gainers and losers, Minnesota registered the top increase with a $2.1 billion addition, while North Dakota recorded the largest loss with a $3.1 billion reduction in the export of manufactured goods.
Rural Mainstreet Economy: Solid Job Growth, Weak Farm Income
Almost Two-Thirds of Bankers Expect 2025 Farm Income to Decline
March 2025 Survey Results at-a-Glance:
• The overall Rural Mainstreet index fell below growth neutral for the 18th time in the past 19 months.
• For the 10th time in the past 11 months, farmland prices sank.
• In terms of 2025 farm income, compared to 2024 farm income, only 3.7% of bankers expect an increase, while 62.9% predict a decline.
• Farm equipment sales dropped for the 19th straight month.
• Only 7.5% of bank CEOs recommend returning to January 2025 tariff levels.
• Approximately one in five bank CEOs expect a recession in 2025.
• According to trade data from the International Trade Association (ITA), regional exports of agriculture goods and livestock for the first month of 2025, compared to the first month of 2024, fell from $1.1 billion in 2024 to $964.3 million in 2025 for a decline of 13.9%.
• Mexico began 2025 as the top destination for ag exports, accounting for 44.8% of total regional agriculture and livestock exports.
• Despite weakness on the farm, solid job gains were recorded for the non-farm Rural Mainstreet Economy.
