Economic Outlook
Recent Survey Results
Mid-America Manufacturing Economy Ends Year on a Down Note with Job Losses, Rising Inflation, and Trade Issues
December 2024 Survey Highlights:
• For the seventh time this year, the overall, or Business Conditions Index, fell below growth neutral.
• For a third straight month, the wholesale price inflation gauge rose.
• Concern was raised regarding the potential of a January 15 longshoremen port strike.
• The region’s employment index slumped below growth neutral for the 12th straight month.
• Despite falling manufacturing employment, approximately one in five firms reported labor shortages.
• U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data show that regional manufacturing employment fell by 4,500 jobs (-0.4%) for 2024. During the same period, U.S. manufacturing employment sank by 73,000 jobs or -0.6%.
• According to the latest U.S. International Trade Administration data, the regional economy expanded 2024 year-to-date manufacturing exports by $922.3 million from the same period in 2023 for a 1.2% gain.
Rural Mainstreet Economy Plummets as Trump Bump Fades
Farm Loan Delinquencies Steady & Low
December 2024 Survey Results at-a-Glance:
• We at Creighton University, and bank executives in our survey, issue this release in recognition and appreciation of Mr. William “Bill” McQuillan, who recently passed. Bill was a co-creator of this survey and former Chair of the Independent Bankers of America. We express our heartfelt condolences to Bill’s family and friends.
• For the 11th time in 2024, the Rural Mainstreet Index dropped below growth neutral.
• For the 7th time in the past eight months, farmland prices sank.
• Farm equipment sales dropped for the 17th straight month.
• On average, farm loan delinquency rates rose by only 1.2% over the past six months.
• Approximately one in five bank CEOs expect a recession in 2025.
• According to trade data from the International Trade Association (ITA), regional exports of agriculture goods and livestock for 2024 year-to-date rose to $9.98 billion from $9.71 billion from the same period in 2023 for a 2.8% gain.
• Roughly, 21.7% of bankers indicated that their bank had raised credit standards over the past 12 months.
